Falling global fertility rates - 17th August 2020

Sharp falls in global fertility rates could mean smaller populations in most countries by the end of the century, according to research.

As elderly populations are growing in many countries, it is becoming the norm to see the same number of 80-year-olds as new-born babies. This leads to the expectation that some populations could fall by a startling 50% by 2100.

The fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman gives birth to and if this falls below 2.1, a country’s population decreases. A study carried out by the University of Washington reported that the fertility rate has dropped from 4.7 in 1950 to 2.4 in 2017 and they predict it to fall further to 1.7 by 2100.

Factors that contribute to lower fertility rates are better healthcare and education, a higher number of women in the workplace and easier access to contraception.

The number of people above 80 years old is predicted to increase by 725 million between 2017 and 2100 which creates many questions:

How will the healthcare system cope; what careers will people have and what will the retirement age be; how many people will migrate and where will they go?

Some countries, such as the UK, depend on migration to increase their young population, but this can’t continue if all countries have smaller populations.

Several governments have been trying to encourage more births with longer maternity and paternity leave, free childcare and support systems.

If these predictions turn out to be true, the world will require organised migration and new global cooperation for humanity to survive.